Best Prediction Markets in the US: Kalshi, Polymarket and Rivals Ranked

A prediction market asks a simple question, such as “Will the Chiefs beat the Bills?” or “Will the Fed cut rates?”, and lets you buy Yes or No. Get it right and each contract pays $1. Get it wrong and it pays nothing.

The US field now includes a brokerage app and the country’s two biggest sportsbook brands. We compared five federally regulated platforms on liquidity, market range, fees, apps and sign-up offers.

18+ | Trading involves risk of loss | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Top prediction markets at a glance: our picks by category

• Best overall: Kalshi, with the deepest liquidity in the country and the widest range of event categories
• Best sign-up offer for a small deposit: Polymarket US, where a $10 first deposit unlocks $25 in trading credit with no Promo Code
• Best for sports fans in non-sportsbook states: DraftKings Predictions, with player props, combos and a 4.9 App Store rating
• Best for investors: Robinhood, where event contracts sit beside stocks, options and retirement accounts in one app
• Best low-effort welcome bonus: FanDuel Predicts, with up to $100 in Predicts Bonus for five $1 trades

The 5 best prediction markets in the US, ranked

Prediction markets compared: fees, markets, states and offers

Rank	Platform	Rating	Regulation	Trading fees	Markets	Min deposit	States	Welcome offer	Promo Code
1	Kalshi	4.7	CFTC DCM	0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price) for takers; resting orders usually free	Sports, politics, economics, finance, crypto, weather, science, tech, culture	$10	Eligible US users; sports contracts contested in several states	Referral sign-up bonus, amount shown in app	Referral code
2	Polymarket US	4.5	CFTC DCM	0.0695 × contracts × price × (1 − price) for takers	Sports, politics, economics, crypto, weather, tech, culture	$10 for the offer	All states except Nevada	$25 credit for a $10 deposit	No Promo Code needed
3	DraftKings Predictions	4.3	CFTC-registered broker, own DCM	1 or 2 cents per contract	Sports, finance, crypto, culture	$5	Sports in 18 states; other markets everywhere except Maine and New Hampshire	Site credits after a first trade, amount shown in app	No Promo Code needed
4	Robinhood	4.1	CFTC-regulated contracts via RHD account	Set out in Robinhood’s fee schedule	Sports, economics, politics, finance, tech, entertainment	From $1	Varies by state	Referral reward, amount shown in app	Referral link
5	FanDuel Predicts	4.0	CFTC-registered FCM (CME Group JV)	Shown on the trade slip	Sports, finance, crypto, culture	$5	Sports in 18 states; other markets in all 50	$100 Predicts Bonus for five $1 trades	No Promo Code needed

All five require users to be 18 or older.

Also reviewed

• BetPro IQ: not an event contract exchange but a funded sports betting challenge, licensed by the UK Gambling Commission and priced in pounds. You pay an entry fee and try to grow a virtual balance by 40% without losing 10%. It borrows the language of trading, but it is betting.

How prediction markets work: contracts priced from 1 to 99 cents

Every contract on these platforms is a yes-or-no question with a fixed payout. A winning contract settles at $1. A losing one settles at $0. Before the result, contracts trade at anywhere from 1 cent to 99 cents, and that price reads as the crowd’s rough estimate of the probability. Yes at 40 cents means traders, collectively, put the chance at about 40%.

Yes and No add up to roughly a dollar, and prices are set by traders on an order book, moving as news breaks.

A worked example in dollars

Say it’s a Sunday morning in Houston and you think the Texans will beat a division rival. On Kalshi, Yes on “Will the Texans win?” is 40 cents. You buy 100 contracts.

• Contract cost: 100 × $0.40 = $40.00
• Taker fee at Kalshi’s standard rate: 0.07 × 100 × 0.40 × 0.60 = $1.68
• Total outlay: $41.68
• If the Texans win: 100 × $1 = $100, a profit of $58.32
• If they lose: the contracts settle at $0 and you lose $41.68

You don’t have to wait for the final whistle. If Houston leads by two touchdowns at halftime and Yes climbs to 65 cents, you can sell. Your 100 contracts fetch $65.00, less a selling fee of about $1.59, so you walk away with $63.41 and a profit of $21.73, whatever happens in the second half.

Selling depends on liquidity. In a busy NFL market it is rarely a problem; in a niche contract the spread can be wide. Always read each market’s settlement rules, which cover edge cases such as postponements and no contests.

Prediction markets vs sportsbooks: what actually differs

Who sets the price. A sportsbook quotes the odds and takes the other side, with its margin built in. On a prediction market, other traders set the price and the platform earns a fee.

Exiting early. On an exchange you can sell at the market price before settlement, if there is a buyer. Sportsbook cash out is priced by the book.

Regulation and age. Licensed US sportsbooks are regulated state by state, and their customers must be 21 or older. The five prediction markets here are regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as derivatives platforms, and accept customers from 18. That federal status is why DraftKings and FanDuel can offer sports contracts in California, Texas, Florida and Georgia, where neither runs a sportsbook. The platforms call it trading, not betting.

Taxes. Sportsbook winnings are taxed as gambling income. Under the 2025 federal tax law, only 90% of gambling losses can be deducted, only up to gambling winnings, and only if you itemize. Prediction market contracts are regulated as derivatives, and some tax professionals argue that gains may qualify for the treatment given to certain futures contracts under Section 1256 of the tax code, split 60% long-term and 40% short-term capital gains. The IRS has not issued formal guidance on sports event contracts, so that view is not settled. Platforms generally report activity on Form 1099, whereas sportsbooks report large wins on Form W-2G, so expect more paperwork. Keep records and speak to a tax professional.

If you are in a state with licensed sportsbooks and want a fixed payout on a game, our guide to the best sportsbook apps covers the options.

Events you can trade: sports, politics, the economy, culture and weather

Sports. Game winners, spreads, totals and futures, plus player props and parlay-style combos at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Politics and elections. Kalshi and Polymarket US lead, including midterm races at Polymarket. Robinhood lists politics too; DraftKings and FanDuel largely don’t.

The economy. Fed decisions, inflation and GDP are a Kalshi specialty, with Fed and GDP markets at Polymarket US and heavy Fed activity at Robinhood. DraftKings offers S&P 500 and commodities contracts, and FanDuel lists CME Group finance contracts.

Crypto. Bitcoin price contracts appear at Kalshi, Polymarket US, DraftKings and FanDuel.

Culture. Oscars, Emmys and music charts at Polymarket US, award shows at FanDuel, pop culture at DraftKings, and AI models and court cases at Kalshi.

Weather and climate. Kalshi lists temperature records and climate markets, and Polymarket US offers daily city temperature contracts.

Prediction market fees explained

Kalshi charges takers (people who accept a price already on the book) 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price). The fee peaks at 50 cents and shrinks toward the extremes: 100 contracts at 50 cents cost $1.75 in fees, at 20 cents $1.12. Limit orders that rest on the book and are later filled generally avoid the taker fee, though Kalshi charges a smaller maker fee (0.0175 on the same formula) in markets it lists.

Polymarket US uses the same shape with a coefficient of 0.0695 (0.10 in table tennis markets). 100 contracts at 50 cents carry a taker fee of about $1.74, and at 20 cents about $1.11. Combo trades use a separate curve. Maker rebates are tiered on monthly maker volume and start only at $10 million, so they won’t apply to most readers. Separate taker rebates of up to 30% reward heavy takers.

DraftKings Predictions charges a flat 1 cent per contract at prices from 1 to 19 cents and from 97 to 99 cents, and 2 cents per contract from 20 to 96 cents. There is no settlement fee. That makes 100 contracts at 50 cents cost $2.00, slightly more than Kalshi, while 100 at 10 cents cost $1.00 against Kalshi’s $0.63.

FanDuel Predicts shows the fee on the trade slip before you confirm, rather than publishing a schedule. Free ACH transfers are the cheap way to move money; instant bank and debit card withdrawals cost 1.75% (minimum $1, maximum $150), so a $200 instant withdrawal costs $3.50.

Robinhood sets out its prediction market charges in its fee schedule, separately from its commission-free stock trading.

If you trade often, learn to use limit orders on Kalshi and Polymarket US.

Legal status: the CFTC, the states and the courts

All five operate under federal oversight. Kalshi and Polymarket US run their own CFTC designated contract markets. DraftKings and FanDuel use CFTC-registered brokers that are National Futures Association members. Robinhood uses a separate Robinhood Derivatives account.

What that does not settle is whether states can also treat sports contracts as gambling. The platforms and the CFTC say the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction. A growing group of states calls a contract on a game winner a sports bet by another name, and has answered with cease-and-desist letters, lawsuits and, in some cases, outright bans.

The courts have not agreed:

• New Jersey: the Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Kalshi’s contracts are not subject to New Jersey’s gambling laws.
• Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee: the Ninth Circuit (Nevada) and the Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee) ruled that states can apply their gambling laws to Kalshi’s event contracts. That circuit split could take the question to the US Supreme Court.
• Arizona: in April 2026, a federal judge temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operators and paused a criminal case against Kalshi.
• Minnesota: a federal judge temporarily blocked the state’s prediction market ban, in a challenge brought by the CFTC, Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Utah: a federal judge refused Kalshi’s request to stop the state enforcing its anti-gambling laws, and Kalshi said it would appeal.
• New York: the state has sued both Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging unlicensed gambling. Both companies reject that characterization.

None of these rulings settles the question nationally. In practice, what you see in an app depends on where you are physically standing, confirmed by geolocation, and the map can change. Polymarket US is unavailable in Nevada. DraftKings and FanDuel keep sports contracts out of the states where they hold sportsbook licenses, and both withdrew from Nevada’s licensing process after regulators there made clear that licensees could not offer event contracts. DraftKings offers no markets at all in Maine or New Hampshire, or on tribal land.

In 2022 the CFTC fined the original Polymarket operation $1.4 million for offering event contracts without a registered exchange. Today’s Polymarket US is a separate, registered entity built on QCX LLC. The international site, Polymarket.com, is crypto-based and closed to US residents.

How to sign up: KYC, geolocation and your first trade

1. Download the app. DraftKings Predictions also appears as a tab in the main DraftKings app, FanDuel Predicts is mobile-only, and Robinhood’s contracts live in the main Robinhood app.
2. Use the right link or code. For Kalshi, enter a referral code at sign-up or within 72 hours. For Polymarket US, the campaign tied to your link applies automatically. For Robinhood, open a friend’s Prediction Markets referral link on your phone.
3. Enter your details. Expect name, address, email, date of birth and all or part of your Social Security number. FanDuel also asks about your trading experience, employment and finances before you can deposit.
4. Verify your identity. Some checks clear in a minute; others take up to two days and ask for a government-issued photo ID or proof of address. Finish verification before you deposit, since withdrawals held for checks after a win are a common complaint.
5. Allow location services. Geolocation decides which markets you can see and trade.
6. Deposit. Minimums run from $5 at DraftKings and FanDuel to $10 at Kalshi.
7. Place a first trade. Start small and read the settlement rules.

How to pick a prediction market

Start with where you live. If you are in California, Texas, Florida or another of the 18 states on the DraftKings and FanDuel sports lists, all five platforms may show you sports. In New Jersey or Pennsylvania, the sportsbook brands switch sports off.

Decide what you want to trade. Sports alone: any of the five. Elections, Fed meetings, inflation or weather: Kalshi first, Polymarket US second.

Check liquidity. Kalshi handled about $80 billion of the roughly $106 billion traded across the platforms DeFi Rate tracked over 30 days, with Polymarket US at about $12.6 billion and DraftKings at $3.3 billion.

Do the fee math for your style. Mostly cheap long shots: DraftKings’ 1-cent tier is hard to beat. Mostly coin-flip prices and patient limit orders: Kalshi or Polymarket US.

Read the offer, not the headline. Polymarket’s $25 for a $10 deposit is the easiest to value. FanDuel’s $100 needs five days of trading and disappears a day after each bonus lands. Kalshi, DraftKings and Robinhood show their amounts only in the app.

Responsible trading: limits, breaks and help

A contract can lose its full purchase price, and a high price is not a guarantee. A Yes at 90 cents still fails about one time in ten. Live trading and daily bonus schedules can speed up how often you trade, so set limits first.

• Limits: deposit limits at DraftKings and FanDuel, funding caps at Kalshi.
• Breaks: trading breaks at Kalshi, cooling-off periods at DraftKings.
• Self-exclusion: at Kalshi, DraftKings and FanDuel (one, three or five years at FanDuel).

Treat bonus credit as a trial, not a reason to deposit more. Our money section covers budgeting before you take on risk. If you prefer games with no purchase necessary, our sweepstakes casinos guide explains how Gold Coins and Sweeps Coins work.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, or 1-800-522-4700 for the national helpline.

How we rate prediction markets

Each platform is scored out of five on six weighted criteria:

• Liquidity (25%): trading volume, using DeFi Rate’s 30-day data where tracked
• Market range (20%): depth across event categories and how widely they are available
• Fees (20%): trading fees, how clearly they are published, and payment costs
• Apps and usability (15%): app store ratings and tools such as limit orders and demo modes
• Welcome offer (10%): the value of the deal and how clear its terms are
• Regulation and trust (10%): CFTC status, enforcement history and responsible trading tools

We read each platform’s fee schedule, offer terms and help pages, and check CFTC records and app store listings.

Prediction markets FAQs

Are prediction markets legal in my state?

It depends on the platform and the market. All five are federally regulated, and non-sports markets reach most of the country. Sports contracts are the contested part: DraftKings and FanDuel offer them in 18 states, Polymarket US is unavailable in Nevada, and several states have challenged Kalshi in court. Your app shows what is open where you are physically located.

Is Polymarket legal in the US?

Yes, through Polymarket US, a CFTC designated contract market operated by QCX LLC. The international site, Polymarket.com, is not open to US residents. Polymarket US is unavailable in Nevada, and New York has sued the company, which disputes the claim.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: which is better?

Kalshi, for most traders. It has far more liquidity, a wider menu of economics, weather and science markets, and a demo mode. Polymarket US has the clearer welcome offer, $25 in credit for a $10 deposit, and a slightly lower taker fee coefficient (0.0695 against 0.07).

Is there a prediction market Promo Code?

Not in the usual sense. Polymarket US, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts need no Promo Code. Kalshi uses referral codes, which you can add within 72 hours of creating your account, and Robinhood uses referral links.

How do prediction markets make money?

Mainly through trading fees on each contract. DraftKings also owns the exchange it lists on, DKeX. The platforms are not taking the other side of your trade, so they don’t need you to lose.

Are prediction markets gambling?

The platforms and the CFTC say no: event contracts are regulated derivatives traded between customers. Many states disagree on sports contracts, and courts have split. Either way, your money is at risk.

How old do you have to be to use a prediction market?

18 at all five platforms here. Licensed US sportsbooks require customers to be 21.

Why can’t I see sports markets in my state?

DraftKings and FanDuel switch sports off in states where they run licensed sportsbooks, such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania. State court rulings and platform decisions can also close sports markets in particular states.

Do you pay taxes on prediction market winnings?

Yes, gains are taxable, but how they are classed is unsettled. Some tax professionals argue event contracts may qualify for futures-style Section 1256 treatment, while sports betting winnings are taxed as gambling income. The IRS has not issued formal guidance on sports event contracts. Expect a Form 1099 and talk to a tax professional.

Can I sell a contract before the event ends?

Yes, on all five platforms, as long as another trader will buy at your price. Selling early lets you lock in a gain or cut a loss.

Is there a no deposit bonus on prediction markets?

None of the five offers withdrawable cash for nothing. Polymarket US needs a $10 deposit, FanDuel and DraftKings a deposit and a trade, and Kalshi and Robinhood set terms in each referral offer. Bonus credit itself is never withdrawable; only winnings from it are.

Is my money protected on a prediction market?

DraftKings holds customer funds in segregated accounts, but funds at DraftKings and FanDuel are not FDIC insured or SIPC protected. Contracts are fully paid up front, so you can never owe more than you put in.

18+ | Trading involves substantial risk of loss | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER